The study activity is completed.
The satcom addressable market forecast scenarios created and studies are:
- 'Dynamic or Growth' for optimistic growth model,
- 'Balanced' for normal growth model,
- 'Defensive' for worst growth model.
A detailed user segmentation provides users? profiling in terms of:
- Likelihood of purchase,
- Potential size of the segment, and
- Price sensitivity.
Outcomes confirm that although the market size in SEE region is relatively small the potential for satcom services is important but the window of opportunity becomes narrower as established incumbent telecom operators extend the DSL networks. DVB-RCS technology lacks to compete especially in the residential sector.
Under all scenarios and users segments, Greece and Slovenia lead the race of progress. Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria follow but it be will a great change for these countries to grow to an acceptable degree and reach EU average. The rest of the countries are far behind and major restructuring is needed to progress.
Under both 'balanced' and 'defensive' case scenarios, the user demand can be accommodated on a conventional Ku/Ku satellite. HelllasSat 2 can be the candidate to carry the service and lease the capacity as today. The hypothesis is made that up to 6 transponders gradually increasing along a '3-year' period (adding one transponder per year). This approach gives time to validate the business model and select the appropriate development plan. However the growth potential is rather limited and it could be only an interim solution or gap-filler for the short-term.
It can be expected that later on the expected growth in the demand would require piggy back payloads or even dedicated space segment. For mid-term, it would make sense to look for a solution which maximizes the transponder loads and offer new features such as traffic flexibility and beam capability. It turns out that the best 'service-to-market' approach is to implement a piggy-back payload such as Enhanced AmerHis on a spacecraft with a short delivery scheme. This would allow a service ramp-up in a very short time scale. Upgrade a ground infrastructure remains now a 'straight-forward' exercise if the background experience on similar initiatives is taken into account.
However several issues have to be worked around which push to a dedicated satellite. In fact it is the most attractive package in terms of growth capability and suitability to service properly the business case.
Business wise, the role of the two main players of the value chain for the provision of satellite broadband service has been analyzed: Satellite Operator and Service Provider, with three different business models and in three different market scenarios, namely:
- The Satellite Operator as bandwidth provider,
- The Satellite Operator as Service Provider (Sub-case 2 - the Virtual Network Operator concept),
- The Satellite Operator as end-to-end solution provider.